Forecasting benchmarks of long-term stock returns via machine learning
Recent advances in pension product development seem to favour alternatives to the risk free asset often used in the financial theory as a performance standard for measuring the value generated by an investment or a reference point for determining the value of a financial instrument. To this end, in this paper, we apply the simplest machine learning technique, namely, a fully nonparametric smoother with the covariates and the smoothing parameter chosen by cross-validation to forecast stock returns in excess of different benchmarks, including the short-term interest rate, long-term interest rate, earnings-by-price ratio, and the inflation. We find that, net-of-inflation, the combined earnings-by-price and long-short rate spread form our best-performing two-dimensional set of predictors for future annual stock returns. This is a crucial conclusion for actuarial applications that aim to provide real-income forecasts for pensioners.
Kyriakou, I., Mousavi, P., Nielsen, J. P. und Scholz, M. (2021): Forecasting benchmarks of long-term stock returns via machine learning, in: Annals of Operations Research, Vol. 297, pp. 221-240, doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-019-03338-4.
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