Economics Research Seminar

"Sorting fact from fiction in a complex world under the shadow of motivated reasoning"

We combine a simple model and a survey-experimental study in Austria, Germany, and the UK to investigate how sorting fact from fiction and updating from new information are shaped by cognitive ability, motivated reasoning, and overconfidence in societally relevant but politicized and complex topics, such as climate change and public health. We predict and find evidence that cognitive ability (i.e., both IQ and education) improves news discernment. The positive effect of cognitive ability on news discernment is robust and immune to motivated reasoning. In particular, the ability to give correct answers that counter one's existing issue opinions and biases increases in IQ and education. These novel results are good news, suggesting the malleability of news discernment. However, when we disaggregate data by news topic, we find that higher cognitive ability may sometimes boost motivated decision making. Our findings suggest that institutions may matter. For example, higher trust in institutions reduces the magnitude of motivated reasoning, which may help limit opinion polarization in the longer term.